Case Shiller for November will be out tomorrow

[deejayoh]

[Scuba Steve]

My guesses...

YOY +1%
MOM -2%

[Alan]

I'm placing my bets on deejayoh's analysis.

And I'll lean towards the first estimate assuming that variations in the current trend are noise in the first model.

[deejayoh]

[deeplennon]

zee november numbers are out.

-1.4% mom, +1.8% yoy, good guessing. 2.68% off our July peak.

Every market showed exacerbated MOM declines from oct/nov than from sept/oct. Amazing.

Seattle, Portland (+1.3%) and Charlotte (+2.9) are still all hanging on to positive yoy.

[carlislematthew]

It should also be noted that there is only one other time in the entire data series where the MOM figure is -1.4%, so we've actually reached our previous record MOM price decline. Here is a quick snapshot of that previous period:

September 1990 68.13 -0.7%
October 1990 67.59 -0.8%
November 1990 66.88 -1.1%
December 1990 66.38 -0.7%
January 1991 65.53 -1.3%
February 1991 64.60 -1.4%
March 1991 64.47 -0.2%

Who is to say what comes next, but considering that this data is from November and that there's a lot of winter (slow season) between November and Spring, I'm expecting that we'll see some more similar MOM declines for the next few months, at least.

[deeplennon]

More interesting (to me) stats.

If the Seattle C-S index has the same 1.43% MOM decline over the next six reports then we'll be negative YOY in January and -10% YOY in May, a month in which we'd also hit -2YOY. This of course assumes that the rate of deprecation will not keep increasing as it has over the last 4 reports. Hard to say though if that little blip we had in interest rates will moderate that somewhat for Jan/Feb.

The 'you are now underwater' honor is now bestowed upon any Seattle area home buyer who purchased since April 2007.

[deeplennon]

[carlislematthew]

[MrRational]

[carlislematthew]

[MrRational]

[deejayoh]

[deejayoh]

[MrRational]