Death of the burbs

[Big Mike 34]

This is an interesting article...I happen to be looking for a house in the Burbs....Woodinville, Maple Valley, Maybe fall city or Issaquah

http://www.businessandmedia.org/article ... 95901.aspx

I hope it is wrong.

[rose-colored-coolaid]

This is a pretty common meme right now. Death is probably too strong of a word, but there does seem to be a shift where the burbs are no longer as desirable as they once were.

The two main causes in the shift appear to be increasing commute times, and the replacement of heavy industry with commercial industry at most city centers.

[WestSideBilly]

I've seen a bunch of these articles (most of them cite the 22 million vacant house guesstimate at some point) and they all miss the mark.

The suburbs have pulled people because they've generally had lower primary costs (home buying), bigger yards, better schools, lower crime, and so on and so forth. That's all still true. Yes, sitting in traffic for an hour burning $4/gallon gas isn't much fun, but the tradeoffs still favor suburbs for a family with kids (which, last time I checked, is a larger demographic than empty nesters and yuppies). And many businesses in the last decade or two have moved to suburbs for the same reasons - lower costs, more space, closer to where most of their employees work, less crime, etc.

The exurbs with no real job opportunities (other than service sector) may well see an end to their growth. But suburbs are here to stay.

[garth]

No 22 million here:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pd ... llapse.pdf

[Big Mike 34]

[Robroy]

If the burbs "die" there won't be a lot of traffic, which means the commute will be a breeze, which means people will want to move there, which will cause a boom, which will bust, causing the burbs to die.

Rinse and repeat.

Meanwhile, I only commute 8.4 miles to my corporate gig in Bellevue. It is 20 minutes before seven, 40 minutes after seven, and 27-30 minutes by bike. It is from the east Renton Highlands. Upscale neighborhood, rent is very low, crime is pretty much non-existent. The Maple Valley trail is just down the hill.

I think the ex-urbs are the the places that will be really be hammered. I'm thinking places like this: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 19226&z=16

[mukoh]

[Robroy]

[Lake Hills Renter]

I drive by that subdivision on the way to Rainier. Every time I see it my first thought is "WTF?". There's nothing out there at all. I'm sure the views of Rainier are great, but the nearest town is Orting.

[mukoh]

The main strip in Orting just past has a ton of Soundbuilt plats and they are huge, 200+ lot subdivisions.

[lamont]

when rainier pops and the pyroclastic flows take out orting it'll give a new meaning to "death of the burbs".

[perfectfire]

[Lake Hills Renter]

[Robroy]