Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

Here is an interesting analysis from John Burns Real Estate - who, from what I can tell, are in the business of selling market analysis and consulting services to builders.

Their contention is that markets that are at historical extremes on affordabilty (mortgage/income) and building activity (permits) are most at risk of a downturn. Guess what! Seattle made the top, right quadrant. Wait - that's not a good thing? It means we're overpriced AND oversupplied?

Oh, and also pay attention to that little "E/P" number. It is employment growth over permits, which is the figure they use to predict speed of price recovery. A bigger number is better, and at 1.3, Seattle is about average, so it doesn't appear we'll be especially resilient either (just like we weren't in 2001)



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DeeJay: To be honest, I don't really understand this article.

It's meant to be a somewhat bullish article for builders, right? Seattle is both very overpriced and oversupplied. Even so builders will do well compared to resellers due to new job growth? I don't quite get why builders would do better. Either way, the article is saying the market is a bit sketchy at this point.