by finance » Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:06 am
I just got back from an amazing 5 day trip in Manhattan (stayed in Time Square at a friends apt thats working on the new FOX Business Channel starting 10.15.07). The Real Estate development in Manhattan is truly incredible and opened my eyes to how density there is an understatement.
What Seattle needs to do to be a "World Class City" is to develop the land to its fullest extent. The market will dictate what is built. If luxury condos provide the most utility for that piece of land, ta da! However once the market is saturated (or oversaturated) the developers will start to build mid and lower class condos/houses. As for Commercial buildings, the same concept applies. There are currently 15 construction cranes in Bellevue and about the same in downtown Seattle...
Over the past few years we have seen Rents rise at a dramatic rate for a variety of reasons, thus if we build more housing the monthly cost will decline (or moderate) over time. Commercial Rental rates have almost doubled in the past 4 years (a friends companys space did). The most efficient way for housing prices to decline is through overbuilding and causing prices to decline to the point where the market absorbs the new supply (may take several years).
Are Real Estate prices overvalued in Seattle at this time, probably, but doesnt mean they will actually realize a large decline. As long as the market has more DEMAND than SUPPLY for condos/housing downtown Seattle/Bellevue we will see prices at their current levels. As construction on our roads and infrastructure are revamped the commute times will skyrocket and people will be willing to sell a kidney to live close to work, which is why I bought a condo in downtown Seattle (98101). My new commute starting later this month will be a 5 min walk to work (or 6 blocks), woo hoo!